The GBP/USD currency pair also traded slightly higher on Tuesday, despite the absence of important macroeconomic reports, geopolitical news, or fundamental events. However, the geopolitical backdrop changed last Thursday when Donald Trump, instead of ordering new strikes against Iran "to deter any further delays in negotiations," suddenly announced his readiness for a peace agreement. Since then, the dollar has only declined, albeit moderately and without urgency. We have previously discussed the reasons for the lack of a sharp drop in the US currency, but one reason cannot be overlooked. This article will focus on that.
The war in Iran began because Donald Trump considered the threat posed by Iranian ballistic missiles undeniable. According to the American president, Tehran was ready to press the red button to destroy America, and only the insight of the leader of the White House saved the nation and the country. This is the official version. The real version varies for everyone, but many experts continue to insist that Donald Trump either wanted to divert public attention from the "Epstein files" or earn a few extra tens of billions of oil dollars. Perhaps it was both.
However, officially, Trump intended to deprive Iran of nuclear weapons and the capability to produce them. So, on February 28, a military campaign in Iran commenced, involving more than a dozen states. Now, on June 17, hostilities have ceased, and the parties are ready to sign the first reconciliation deal, but what about the nuclear issue? It hasn't even been discussed yet.
The memorandum of understanding does not even contain a clause regarding Iran's nuclear energy or its stockpiles of enriched uranium. Simply put, Trump began the war with the goal of denuclearizing Iran, and now he is happy to sign an agreement that merely opens the Strait of Hormuz and ends hostilities in the region. In return, some sanctions on Iran will be lifted, and its foreign assets will be unfrozen. A reasonable question arises: what was the point of the war in Iran if nothing has changed? It might be better to ask: what did Trump achieve through the war with Iran? Did Iran give up its nuclear armament? No. Did Iran lose, surrender, or fall? No. Did Trump's political ratings rise, and the whole world thank him for saving them from the "Iranian nuclear threat"? No. All that Trump achieved was a few extra tens of billions of dollars in oil revenue for the budget and the forced lifting of sanctions on Iran. Moreover, the leader of the White House inadvertently provided Iran with a trump card, which Tehran will now use in any dangerous situation for itself. That trump card is the Strait of Hormuz. Iran never blocked the strait before, but now it knows just how effective this method can be. Even EU countries are willing to lift sanctions on Iran just to keep the Strait open.
We have consistently stated that we do not believe in the dollar's growth under Trump, and the US leader confirms week after week, month after month, and year after year that this conclusion is absolutely correct.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 62 pips. For the pound/dollar pair, this value is considered "average." On Wednesday, June 17, we expect the pair to move within a range bounded by levels 1.3348 and 1.3472. The upper channel of linear regression is directed upwards, indicating a recovery of the upward trend. The CCI indicator has entered the overbought area, warning of a possible completion of the downward trend.
Nearest support levels:
S1 – 1.3367
S2 – 1.3306
S3 – 1.3245
Nearest resistance levels:
R1 – 1.3428
R2 – 1.3489
R3 – 1.3550
Trading Recommendations:
The GBP/USD currency pair continues its downward trend. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect long-term growth from the US dollar. However, 2026 is proving super-positive for the dollar due to geopolitical factors. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3472 and 1.3489 can be considered when the price is above the moving average. A price position below the moving average line will allow for trading down with a target of 1.3306. The market situation is often changing, and it continues to primarily track geopolitical news, which lacks uniformity.
Explanations for the Illustrations:
Linear regression channels help determine the current trend. If both are directed in the same way, then the trend is strong right now;
The moving average line (settings 20,0, smoothed) defines the short-term trend and the direction in which trading should currently be conducted;
Murray levels are target levels for movements and corrections;
Volatility levels (red lines) represent the probable price channel in which the pair will spend the next day, based on current volatility indicators;
The CCI indicator's entry into oversold territory (below -250) or overbought territory (above +250) indicates an approaching trend reversal in the opposite direction.
