Despite a slight decrease in total open interest, large speculators increased their positions on both sides, but added shorts more actively—this is a signal of growing uncertainty.

According to the COT report on EURO FX (CME) as of May 19, 2026:

• Open Interest (Open Interest): 826,019 contracts (each contract being €125,000). Decreased by -3,358 over the week.

Non-Commercial Traders (Speculators)

• Long: 233,251 (28.2% of OI) — increased by +9,249
• Short: 199,738 (24.2% of OI) — increased by +15,936
• Spreads: 35,233 (4.3% of OI) — increased by +3,118

Speculators maintain a net long position (+33,513), but shorts have increased significantly more than longs over the week—this indicates rising caution. Large funds continue to bet on the euro, but confidence is waning. Number of traders: 87 long / 53 short / 33 spreads.

Commercial Traders (Hedgers)

• Long: 471,453 (57.1% of OI) — decreased by -13,929
• Short: 537,988 (65.1% of OI) — decreased by -26,448

Hedgers traditionally stand against the trend—they hold a net short position (-66,535), meaning they are hedging against the risk of a rising euro by selling futures. Over the week, shorts have decreased at a rate twice that of longs, which indirectly gives a bullish signal for the euro. Number of traders: 139 long / 96 short.

Total

• Long: 739,937 (89.6% of OI) — change -1,562
• Short: 772,959 (93.6% of OI) — change -7,394

Non-Reportable — Small Traders

• Long: 86,082 (10.4% of OI) — decreased by -1,796
• Short: 53,060 (6.4% of OI) — increased by +4,036

Despite a slight decrease in total open interest (-3,358), large speculators (Non-Commercial) increased their positions on both sides, with a more substantial addition to shorts (+15,936 vs. +9,249 longs)—this signals growing uncertainty: "smart money" is hedging both ways, not making a definitive bet on a stronger euro. Commercial participants (hedgers), on the other hand, aggressively reduced shorts (-26,448), which is traditionally interpreted as a weakening of pressure from corporate sellers and indirectly supports the euro. The net position of Non-Commercial remains positive (233,251 - 199,738 = +33,513), meaning the speculative community still holds a net long position on the euro, although its growth rate slowed over the week—there is evident caution ahead of new inflation data and central bank meetings.