Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1699 occurred when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move up from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for buying euros. As a result, the pair rose by more than 35 pips.

The European currency demonstrated significant growth against the US dollar after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde hinted at the possibility of revising interest rates at the June meeting, triggering an active upward move in the EUR/USD pair. Lagarde's statement caused a sharp spike in the euro, which showed substantial strengthening in global currency markets. Investors interpreted her words as a signal for the upcoming tightening of the ECB's monetary policy, which traditionally boosts demand for the national currency. Consequently, yesterday's trading ended with the euro in strong positive territory, and this positive trend has persisted into the beginning of today's Asian session.

Today, there is a likelihood of further euro growth since no new fundamental data from the Eurozone is expected. The market will likely continue to focus on rate-hike forecasts, which have become more pronounced following the ECB president's comments. In the absence of new information capable of shaking or correcting these expectations, market participants are likely to maintain the initiated trend.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will rely more on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario #1: Today, I can buy euros at a price around 1.1735 (green line on the chart), with a target increase to 1.1765. At point 1.1765, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, anticipating a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Prospects for euro growth can only be expected after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1717 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1735 and 1.1765 can be anticipated.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario #1: I plan to sell euros once the level of 1.1717 (red line on the chart) is reached. The target will be the level of 1.1689, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair today may only return within the framework of a minor correction. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell euros today if there are two consecutive tests of 1.1735 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.1717 and 1.1689 can be expected.

What is on the Chart:

• The thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• The thick green line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• The thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• The thick red line – approximate price where take profit can be set or to realize profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator. When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is fundamentally a losing strategy for an intraday trader.