Trade analysis and trading advice for the Japanese yen

Due to low market volatility, the levels I outlined were not tested in the first half of the day, so I did not enter any trades.

The U.S. trading session will feature the release of key statistical data for March. Reports are expected on nonfarm employment, the U.S. unemployment rate, changes in average hourly earnings, and the PMI for the services sector.

Particular attention will be paid to the change in nonfarm payrolls. A strong increase in job creation will serve as convincing evidence of the resilience of the U.S. economy, which is positive for the dollar under current conditions. A decline in the unemployment rate will be a positive signal, demonstrating the economy's ability to effectively absorb labor resources. However, if unemployment remains unchanged or begins to rise, this may indicate underlying structural problems.

As for the U.S. services PMI, a reading above 50 traditionally indicates expansion in business activity in the services sector, which is the main driver of the U.S. economy.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to buy USD/JPY today when the price reaches the entry point around 159.75 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth to 160.09 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 160.09, I plan to exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction). The pair can be expected to rise today in case of strong U.S. data.Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 159.49 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 159.75 and 160.09 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today after the price breaks the 159.49 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 159.15, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move upward from that level). Pressure on the pair may increase further today after weak data.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in case of two consecutive tests of the 159.75 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. A decline toward the opposite levels of 159.49 and 159.15 can be expected.

What's on the chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument
• Thick green line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument
• Thick red line – estimated level to place Take Profit or lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones

Important

Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit—especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.