Last Friday, equity indices finished higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.22%, and the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 0.20%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.72%.

Against this backdrop, Asian equity markets opened the week at record levels. The MSCI Emerging Markets index climbed by 2% to a fresh high, and South Korea's KOSPI also hit a record, led by Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and LG Electronics. The rally is still powered by the AI narrative: news of an expanded partnership between Workday and Google Cloud to integrate agent-based AI systems added optimism across regional tech stocks.

Notably, the equity rally has continued despite persistent uncertainty around a US-Iran deal. Over the weekend, Washington and Tehran exchanged edits to a draft memorandum to extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but it remains unclear whether real progress has been achieved. Brent has recovered, the dollar has strengthened, and Asia's FX markets have reacted very differently from equities. Most Asian currencies fell, with the South Korean won weakening most sharply as foreign investors sold local stocks at record levels to lock in dollar-denominated profits.

Meanwhile, Moody's analysts warn of a fresh risk: the rally's concentration in a single segment — memory-chip makers and AI infrastructure — creates vulnerability to any unexpected slowdown in AI demand. That has not materialized so far, and the boom continues despite geopolitical risks. However, the higher valuations climb, the more painful a correction would be if the Iran story turns negative. Markets in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand are closed today for holidays, reducing liquidity and potentially amplifying price swings.

Technically, the S&P 500 analysis suggests that the immediate task for buyers is to overcome the resistance level of $7,607. Doing so would confirm further upside momentum and open the path to $7,639. Maintaining control above $7,659 would further cement buyers' positions. On the downside, buyers need to defend the $7,574 area. A break below that level would likely push the index back to $7,547 and open the way to $7,518.