Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The test of the price at 1.1685 occurred when the MACD indicator was just starting to move down from the zero mark, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair did not experience another significant decline.

Yesterday's news of an increase in the U.S. consumer confidence index to 92.8 points revived demand for the dollar, but a major sell-off of EUR/USD did not materialize. Following the report's release, the dollar strengthened against a basket of six key currencies, as market participants viewed the event as a sign of the American economy's resilience and reliability despite existing geopolitical challenges. Nevertheless, the upcoming U.S. FOMC meeting has taken its toll on buyer positions, leading to sharp profit-taking.

Today, the first half of the trading session on European exchanges is expected to be lively, as several significant macroeconomic indicators are scheduled for release. Data on private sector lending in the Eurozone serve as an important indicator of the health of the banking sector and business activity. A stable increase in loan volume indicates banks' readiness to lend and rising demand from businesses and households, both of which positively impact economic growth. On the other hand, a slowdown in lending growth may signal a decline in economic activity and caution among market participants. Concurrently, changes in the M3 money supply aggregate in the Eurozone will provide additional information on liquidity in national economies.

The report on Germany's consumer price index will also be significant. Moderate price growth is typically viewed as a sign of a healthy economy; however, accelerating inflation may raise concerns for the European Central Bank and prompt a tightening of monetary policy.

Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: Today, the euro can be purchased at a price around 1.1707 (green line on the chart), with a target rise to 1.1733. At the level of 1.1733, I plan to exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. A rise in the euro can only be anticipated after good data. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting an upward move from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1693 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the downward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal upwards. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1707 and 1.1733 can be expected.

Sell Scenarios

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro once it reaches 1.1693 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1673, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20-25-pip move in the opposite direction from that level). Pressure on the pair may return today if the situation in the Middle East deteriorates. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its downward move.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if the price tests 1.1707 twice in a row while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the upward potential of the pair and lead to a market reversal downwards. A decrease to the opposite levels of 1.1693 and 1.1673 can be expected.

What Is On The Chart:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – the expected price where Take Profit can be set, or profits can be secured, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator. It is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones upon entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making entry decisions. It is best to be out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid being caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.