Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.1788 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro.

Going forward, traders' attention will be focused on speeches by Federal Reserve representatives, including Mary Daly, Thomas Barkin, and Christopher Waller. Their statements may determine the future direction of the market. On the other hand, any new information or hints from Donald Trump related to geopolitics could trigger sharp fluctuations in the currency market—especially in pairs involving the U.S. dollar. Therefore, market participants will need to carefully analyze both Fed commentary and any potential remarks by Trump regarding Iran.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely more on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches around 1.1801 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1821. At 1.1821, I plan to exit the market and also open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a move of 30–35 points from the entry level. Growth in the euro today can only be expected if Fed representatives take a very dovish stance.

Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1790 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward reversal. Growth toward the opposite levels of 1.1801 and 1.1821 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell the euro after it reaches the 1.1790 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1770, where I intend to exit the market and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return if Fed representatives take a hawkish stance.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1801 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.1790 and 1.1770 can be expected.

Chart Notes

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated level for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should be very cautious when making entry decisions. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.