विदेशी मुद्रा विश्लेषण और समीक्षा: 16.02.2026 - AI fuels growth, while Fed prints money. Trader's calendar for Februar...

16.02.2026 10:46 AM

AI fuels growth, while Fed prints money. Trader's calendar for February 16-18

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US: budget deficit, migrants, and Venezuelan oil

According to the latest Congressional Budget Office forecast, the federal budget deficit will continue to grow and increase by another $1.4 trillion over the next 10 years. This is mainly due to a mismatch between spending and revenues. Government spending in the US is projected to rise by $1.3 trillion. At the same time, tax receipts are expected to be $49 billion lower than projected. The primary source of pressure is interest on the debt. By 2036, debt-service costs are expected to reach $2.1 trillion, more than double the 2026 level. As a share of GDP, the deficit could widen to 6.7%, well above the historical average of 3.8%.

Migrants — costs, priorities, and effects. According to Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in 2024–2025, the Trump administration spent more than $40 million on deportations of about 300 migrants to countries not linked to their origin. On average, the cost per such deportation was $133,333, and in some cases, costs exceeded $1 million per operation (for example, in transfers to Rwanda). The White House explains the high expense by the unwillingness of origin countries to take deported nationals back. Critics view the practice as an expensive mechanism of suppression and intimidation against asylum seekers.

The US allows Western firms back into Venezuelan oil. The Trump administration has issued licenses to five Western oil and gas companies — BP, Chevron, Eni, Repsol, and Shell — to work jointly with Venezuela's state company PDVSA under US oversight. Licenses are limited: participation is prohibited for companies from Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, and North Korea, as well as for persons affiliated with joint ventures controlled by those jurisdictions. President Donald Trump said he is prepared to visit Venezuela. Exact timing has not been announced. Washington's decision is accompanied by diplomatic and military measures in other theaters.

Tensions surrounding Iran

The situation in the Middle East is escalating. According to The National Interest, the US is dispatching a second aircraft-carrier strike group to the region. USS Gerald R. Ford, previously based in the Caribbean, is now headed toward the Mediterranean. The ship carries four fighter squadrons as well as an auxiliary air group for electronic warfare and long-range surveillance. The carrier is escorted by three destroyers with air-defense and anti-submarine capabilities. USS Gerald R. Ford will join USS Abraham Lincoln, which is already in proximity to Iran.

At least 16 C-17 and C-5 military transport aircraft have arrived in the region over two days from Texas and other bases, carrying air-defense and Patriot systems. Media reports indicate that about 150 military cargo flights have taken place since January. Six fifth-generation F-35A fighters have also been redeployed to the region. If diplomacy over Iran's nuclear program fails, the US is prepared to strike not only infrastructure targets but also command-and-control nodes and force elements. Authorities have not ruled out a protracted military campaign lasting weeks rather than a short demonstration of force.

Trading shift – China displacing the US in global markets

Meanwhile, the US share as the top exporter continues to decline. According to Stats Globe data, from 1990 to 2024, America has lost leadership across dozens of markets:

1990 – the US was the largest exporter to 175 countries, China – to 8 countries
2000 – US – 155 countries, China – 15 countries
2010 – US – 85 countries, China – 55 countries
2024 – US – 35 countries, China – 125 countries

This dynamic highlights the strategic vulnerability of the American export model. Investors are shifting attention to emerging markets, where new trade-and-investment windows are opening. Also, mixed US inflation data has amplified market uncertainty. Consumer price growth slowed in January. However, that did not strengthen investor confidence. On the contrary, concerns about the impact of AI triggered large sell-offs in tech stocks. Against the backdrop of uncertainty, the dollar weakened and gold rose, reflecting increased demand for safe-haven assets. Worries over the long-term structural consequences of AI adoption are growing.

China in the Pentagon's crosshairs, Greenland back in the White House spotlight. The US Department of Defense has added Alibaba, Baidu, and BYD to a list of companies allegedly cooperating with the Chinese armed forces. Inclusion on the list does not automatically mean sanctions, but it signals to investors and warns of increased scrutiny and restrictions at the regulator and government level. There are now over 130 Chinese companies on the register. Being named limits potential participation in US defence supply chains and raises legal and reputational costs in the international market. Adding Chinese tech giants to the DoD list could complicate Donald Trump's planned visit to China.

Greenland remains in the White House focus. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Donald Trump has not abandoned his desire to increase US control over Greenland. According to her, the head of state continues to show serious interest in bringing the territory under US jurisdiction, despite protests from Denmark and local authorities. Trump previously floated the idea of Greenland joining the United States. Although he formally stepped back from the original proposal, unofficial signals point to a possible renewal of pressure on this front.

The issue was raised on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, held from February 13-15. Arctic security topics were discussed there in particular. The NATO secretary-general proposed that parties consider a compromise negotiating framework. The Munich conference also featured important statements about the EU's desire to step up its own defence architecture. The President of the European Commission said the EU can no longer rely exclusively on the United States and must be ready to defend itself. Von der Leyen called for invoking Article 42.7 of the Lisbon Treaty, the legally binding mutual-defence clause.

In her view, it is time to "bring the clause to life" and build a European strategic deterrent base, including in space, intelligence, and long-reach strike capabilities. Support could include military as well as political, humanitarian, or financial assistance. Germany is increasing defence spending against a backdrop of sluggish growth. Defence outlays have been raised to 2.8% of GDP amid a sharp ramp-up in arms and equipment production. Over the long term, authorities expect investments in technology, industry, and startups to create a resilient base for economic modernization.

Do markets know where AI can lead them?

The market continues to react sharply to AI-related news. In a single day, the Russell 3000 Trucking index (tracking carriers) plunged 7% after Algorhytm Holdings announced a new AI platform. The company unveiled a product, SemiCab, designed to automate logistics to:

optimize loading
cut empty miles
increase transport volumes by 300-400%
without expanding headcount

The paradox is that Algorhytm Holdings is valued at just $5m. Before launching the AI product, the firm developed karaoke services. Nevertheless, the market treated the announcement as a potential threat to the entire industry. Investors fear that efficient startups can rapidly transform business economics without high entry barriers or significant capital expenditures.

The second blow was a sharp retracement in office real estate and commercial REITs. The reason is the perception of AI as a factor that reduces prospective demand for traditional offices. AI-driven optimization, the growth of remote work, and shifts to hybrid models are increasingly seen as new risks for the sector. Even growth in the data-center management segment — directly tied to AI infrastructure — failed to offset pressure on developers and property operators' shares.

AI infrastructure is expanding, but rising debt is a concern. Despite rapidly growing AI investments, results are barely visible in financial statements. Moreover, tech giants have been actively issuing debt to finance AI infrastructure. Banks are registering rising risks, shifting focus to insurance against defaults by large IT firms. Analysts say the AI bet has reached a phase where rhetoric and actual revenue begin to diverge significantly.

AI is penetrating mass culture and government mechanisms. AI's expansion goes far beyond corporate data centers. Recent examples include:

Meta patented an AI clone that writes a blog after a person's death.
Blogger Khaby Lame (160 million followers on TikTok) sold rights to use his likeness to create an AI double. Under terms with Rich Sparkle Holdings, his stake and the deal value could exceed $1bn (pictured).
Amazon, alongside falling shares, is doubling down on AI — AWS chief Andy Jassy announced $200bn of investment in the AI ecosystem.
Coinbase is launching crypto wallets for AI agents, allowing them to trade autonomously.
T-Mobile is rolling out real-time call translation services in 50 languages.
Fortnite and Gran Turismo are integrating AI characters and adjudicators into their gameplay.
Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson admitted he consults ChatGPT when making government decisions, sparking public debate about digital intelligence in governance.

Revaluation or a bubble? Despite declines in some industries, the semiconductor sector remains the most resilient, especially memory makers. Nvidia (NVDA) continues to show relative strength, remaining the locomotive among the Big Seven. The scale of any bubble is not yet defined, but its contours are becoming more visible. The market is entering a new phase of AI assessment: from universal enthusiasm to more critical, data-driven analysis.

Between AI boom and crypto winter

Being at the epicenter of a new tech cycle, markets are increasingly aware of the paradoxes of progress. Last week, the contrast between two key sectors — artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies — became especially pronounced. While the crypto market is experiencing a deep slump and a loss of investor confidence, the AI sector is showing rapid development and mass adoption, extending far beyond civilian use. The Pentagon is demanding that OpenAI and Anthropic integrate AI into classified military systems. Politicians, militaries, and regulators worldwide are trying to define where the boundary of permissible AI use lies.

Moreover, the next Fed chief sees AI as a panacea. With no clear signals of White House support for the crypto industry, artificial intelligence is increasingly viewed as the main driver of economic stability and growth. Where AI was once perceived as an abstract technological area, it now becomes a material argument in debates over easing Fed policy. This rationale was first voiced in December by Kevin Warsh, nominated by Donald Trump for Fed chair. He called AI "the most productivity-enhancing wave of our lifetimes" and compared the current cycle to the internet revolution of the late 1990s.

Kevin Warsh allowed that AI's macroeconomic impact could be "structurally disinflationary," as the Internet was in previous tech cycles. That argument permits a rethinking of current monetary policy and potentially opens the path to lower rates. In his words, "the Fed has a clear corridor for further rate cuts," and AI could serve as the basis for rewriting baseline forecasts. Other economic leaders are increasingly turning to AI as a long-term source of productivity gains.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in a recent CNBC interview, also drew an analogy to the 1990s, when GDP growth accompanied sustained technological progress without overheating. Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council and considered a potential finalist for the Fed chair role, expressed a similar view on AI's economic effects. Fed officials Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, and Jerome Powell in public remarks have emphasized that AI can provide a durable shift in productivity growth rates. Today, many analysts believe that AI can become not only the foundation of a new monetary policy paradigm but also a reason for gradual, orderly rate cuts over 2026.

16 February

16 February, 00:30 / New Zealand / ** / BusinessNZ Services PMI for January / previous: 47.2 / actual: 51.5 / forecast: – / NZD/USD – volatile

The New Zealand services PMI rose to 51.5 in January, moving into expansion for the first time in three months. The increase signals improving sentiment after a long downturn caused by high borrowing costs and weak domestic demand. The index's approach to yearly highs may revive hopes for an economic recovery. With no consensus forecast, the NZD reaction is ambiguous, but a print notably stronger than the previous reading could increase volatility in NZD/USD.

16 February, 02:50 / Japan / *** / Q4 GDP growth (annualized) / previous: 2.1% / actual: -2.3% / forecast: 1.6% / USD/JPY – down

Japan's economy contracted 2.3% year-on-year in Q4 — the worst reading in two years. The decline exceeded expectations and followed a revised drop in Q2. Negative contributions came from capital expenditure and weak net exports, exacerbated by US tariffs. Private consumption was weak amid rising prices, especially for food. If Q4 GDP confirms a result near the -1.6% forecast, the yen may strengthen on rising odds of a BoJ policy reassessment.

16 February, 02:50 / Japan / *** / Q4 GDP deflator (inflation indicator) / previous: 2.9% / actual: 3.3% / forecast: 2.8% / USD/JPY – up

Japan's GDP deflator rose to 3.3%, a new annual high, indicating accelerating inflationary pressure even as the economy slows. The increase was driven by rising domestic prices amid weak consumption, complicating the choice between keeping policy tight and stimulating growth. If the Q4 print were closer to the 2.8% forecast, the yen would likely be weaker due to ongoing price instability in Japan.

16 February, 07:30 / Japan / ** / Industrial production growth in January / previous: 1.6% / actual: -2.2% / forecast: 2.6% / USD/JPY – down

In December, industrial production in Japan fell 2.2%, contradicting market expectations and the positive signal from November. The decline hit key export and machinery sectors, increasing stress in industrial dynamics after a soft GDP. If January's reading comes in near the 2.6% forecast, the yen could gain support on hopes for a local production rebound.

16 February, 13:00 / Eurozone / ** / Industrial production growth in December / previous: 1.7% / actual: 2.5% / forecast: 1.2% / EUR/USD – down

Eurozone industrial production accelerated to 2.5%, the best result since May last year. Durable and intermediate goods, along with activity in manufacturing hubs in Germany and the Netherlands, supported the gain. The indicator beat expectations for the second month in a row. If December's dynamics slow back toward a 1.2% pace, the euro could weaken on a loss of manufacturing momentum.

16 February, 16:15 / Canada / ** / Housing starts in January / previous: 254.6k / actual: 282.4k / forecast: 265.0k / USD/CAD – up

Canadian housing starts rose to 282.4k in January, a five-month high. The increase was driven by large municipal projects and a pickup in provincial centers. The figures exceed forecasts and show signs of sector recovery after an autumn slump. A drop toward 265k in February is expected, in which case the Canadian dollar could weaken.

16 February, 16:30 / Canada / ** / Manufacturing sales in December / previous: -1.0% / actual: -1.2% / forecast: 0.5% / USD/CAD – down

Canadian manufacturing sales fell 1.2% in December, worse than expected. The decline hit most sectors, including metals and wood products, and was larger than forecasts. A month earlier, sales posted a modest gain. If December's outcome instead comes in near the 0.5% forecast, the CAD could strengthen on signs of revived industrial demand.

17 February

17 February, 10:00 / Germany / ** / Consumer inflation (CPI) growth in January / previous: 2.3% / actual: 1.8% / forecast: 2.1% / EUR/USD – up

Germany's year-on-year inflation slowed to 1.8% in January (harmonized CPI 2.1%), rebounding from a 15-month low in December. The increase in food prices offset lower energy costs, while service inflation and core inflation remained moderate. If the January reading holds around 2.1%, the euro could strengthen on signs of stabilization in consumer prices.

17 February, 10:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Employment change in December / previous: -16k / actual: 82k / forecast: -40k / GBP/USD – down

From September to November, employment in the UK rose by 82k, well above expectations. Employment among paid employees showed resilience despite a fall in self-employment. If December's outcome instead falls near the -40k forecast, the pound could weaken on a sharp deterioration in the labor market and its negative implications for the economy.

17 February, 13:00 / Eurozone / *** / ZEW economic sentiment index (leading) for February / previous: 33.7 / actual: 40.8 / forecast: 45.2 / EUR/USD – up

The eurozone economic expectations index climbed to 40.8, the highest since July 2024. Optimism improved on lower inflation expectations and better perceptions of current conditions. If February's reading approaches the 45.2 forecast, the euro could gain on better business sentiment.

17 February, 13:00 / Germany / *** / ZEW economic expectations index for February / previous: 48.5 / actual: 59.6 / forecast: 63.5 / EUR/USD – up

Germany's ZEW expectations index climbed to 59.6, the highest since July 2021. Investors are upbeat about prospects for 2026 amid new trade deals. Strong gains were reported in key sectors, notably engineering, metals, and vehicles. Current economic assessments are also gradually improving. If the index remains just under the 63.5 forecast, the euro could be supported by industrial and business climate optimism.

17 February, 16:15 / United States / ** / ADP private sector employment change (weekly average to Jan 24) / previous: 5.0k / actual: 6.5k / forecast: – / USDX (six-currency USD index) – volatile

Over the four weeks to Jan 24, private sector payrolls averaged 6.5k per week, up from 5k and the highest pace in nearly a month. The ADP report points to a pickup in hiring, but the lack of sector detail and weak other recent data limit confidence. In the absence of a consensus forecast, the dollar may react in either direction.

17 February, 16:30 / Canada / *** / CPI year-on-year in January / previous: 2.2% / actual: 2.4% / forecast: 2.5% / USD/CAD – down

Canada's year-on-year inflation accelerated to 2.4%, ahead of the central bank's estimates. The rise partly reflects base effects from a temporary tax cut in December 2024. Restaurant and household entertainment prices rose, while transport and housing stabilized the overall index. If January's CPI comes in near 2.5%, the Canadian dollar could strengthen on higher inflationary risk.

17 February, 16:30 / Canada / *** / Wholesale sales month?on?month in January / previous: -1.8% / actual: 2.1% / forecast: 1.9% / USD/CAD – up

Preliminarily, Canadian wholesale sales rose 2.1% in December, beating the forecast. The increase was driven by the motor vehicle and parts sector and reflected active logistics and warehousing activity. If January's reading is close to 1.9%, this could boost the Canadian dollar on signs of a manufacturing sector recovery.

17 February, 16:30 / United States / *** / Empire State manufacturing index for February (leading) / previous: -3.7 / actual: 7.7 / forecast: 7.1 / USDX – down

The Empire State index rose to 7.7 in January, reversing a decline in December. Activity improved on new orders and shipments, though employment fell and shift lengths shortened. Input prices remained high while selling prices eased, indicating muted price pass-through. If February's reading is around 7.1, the dollar could weaken on a local pickup not accompanied by employment gains.

17 February, 18:00 / United States / ** / NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index for February (leading) / previous: 39 / actual: 37 / forecast: 38 / USDX – up

The NAHB index slipped to 37 — a three-month low — with deteriorating builder sentiment, sales, and buyer traffic. Some 40% of respondents reported lower prices, and the average discount rose to 6%. The increased use of incentives highlights the sector's vulnerability to high interest rates and weak demand. If February's reading rises to 38, the US dollar could strengthen.

18 February

18 February, 02:50 / Japan / *** / Export growth in January / previous: 6.1% / actual: 5.1% / forecast: 12.0% / USD/JPY – down

Japan's exports rose for the fourth month in December, but the pace slowed to 5.1%, well below market expectations. The main drag was a collapse in shipments to the US amid tariff measures, which offset growth in China and other Asian countries. If January's export reading comes in near the 12.0% forecast, the yen could strengthen on signs of a recovery in external demand.

18 February, 02:50 / Japan / *** / Import growth in January / previous: 1.3% / actual: 5.3% / forecast: 3.0% / USD/JPY – up

Japan's imports jumped 5.3% in December, accelerating thanks to large stimulus measures. Activity expanded across most categories, notably electronics and industrial supplies. If the January print is close to the 3.0% forecast, the yen could weaken on signs of stronger consumer and corporate demand.

18 February, 03:30 / Australia / ** / Leading Economic Index (month-on-month) for January / previous: 0.0% / actual: 0.1% / forecast: 0.2% / AUD/USD – up

Australia's leading economic index rose 0.1% in January, reflecting a gradual recovery from stagnation. The reading was slightly below expectations, but points to moderate improvement in leading components. If January reaches 0.2%, the Australian dollar could receive further support from positive forward indicators.

18 February, 04:00 / 05:00 / New Zealand / *** / RBNZ policy decision and press conference / previous: 2.50% / actual: 2.25% / forecast: 2.25% / NZD/USD – volatile

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the cash rate at 2.25%, in line with expectations, and maintained a neutral tone. The central bank noted lower inflation but indicated that it would keep the option to raise interest rates if upside risks materialize. With the rate unchanged and no clear forward guidance, NZD's reaction will depend on how market participants interpret Governor Anna Breman's press conference remarks.

18 February, 10:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Consumer inflation (CPI) growth in January / previous: 3.2% / actual: 3.4% / forecast: 3.0% / GBP/USD – down

UK inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 3.4% in January from an eight-month low. The main contributors were higher excise duties and rising transport costs, while services inflation remained elevated. Despite stable core inflation, the stronger headline CPI complicates the Bank of England's plans for early easing. If January's CPI comes in near the 3.0% forecast, the pound could weaken amid expectations of more persistent inflationary pressure.

18 February, 10:00 / United Kingdom / ** / Retail prices growth in January / previous: 3.8% / actual: 4.2% / forecast: 4.0% / GBP/USD – down

UK retail prices accelerated to 4.2% year-on-year — the fastest increase in five months. The annual gain exceeded expectations, and month-on-month retail prices rose 0.7% after an earlier decline. Stronger inflationary pressure in consumer prices makes rate cuts less likely. If January's reading falls toward the 4.0% forecast, the pound could still weaken on fears of prolonged inflation inertia.

18 February, 16:30 / United States / *** / Durable goods orders (monthly) for December / previous: -2.1% / actual: 5.3% / forecast: -1.8% / USDX (six-currency USD index) – down

New orders for durable manufactured goods rose 5.3% in December, driven mainly by a sharp increase in civil aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, orders grew a moderate 0.5%. Strong readings in key industrial segments point to a pickup in business investment. If January's print comes in near the -1.8% forecast, the dollar could weaken on signs of a correction after a year-end surge.

18 February, 16:30 / United States / *** / Building permits in December / previous: 1.415 million / actual: 1.411 million / forecast: 1.360 million / USDX – down

Housing permits fell 0.3% in December but remained above expectations. The decline was concentrated in the South and Midwest, while the West saw a surge. The data are viewed as broadly resilient despite regional variability. If January permits, the dollar could soften as construction activity cools.

18 February, 16:30 / United States / *** / Housing starts in December / previous: 1.306 million / actual: 1.246 million / forecast: 1.270 million / USDX – up

US housing starts dipped to 1.246 million — a two-year low — with most weakness in multifamily construction, while single-family starts rose. Regional dynamics were mixed. If January starts recover toward the 1.27 million forecast, the dollar would gain on expectations of stabilization in the housing market.

18 February, 17:15 / United States / ** / Industrial production growth in January / previous: 2.7% / actual: 2.0% / forecast: 1.9% / USDX – down

US industrial production rose 2.0% in December, supported by utilities and manufacturing. If January comes in near the 1.9% forecast, the dollar could weaken as the trend of decelerating production is confirmed.

18 February, 19:00 / Russia / ** / PPI (producer inflation) growth in January / previous: -1.1% / actual: -3.3% / forecast: -0.2% / USD/RUB – down

Russian producer prices fell 3.3% in December, accelerating deflationary pressure across key industrial sectors. If January's PPI is close to the -0.2% forecast, the ruble may strengthen on expectations that policy will remain tight.

Scheduled appearances and events (selected):

16 February, 16:25 / US / Speech by Michelle Bowman (Fed Board) / USDX

16 February, 20:40 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel (Bundesbank) / EUR/USD

17 February, 03:30 / Australia / RBA minutes (3 Feb meeting) / cash rate – 3.85% / AUD/USD

17 February, 12:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Jose Luis Escriva (Bank of Spain) / EUR/USD

17 February, 19:30 / Germany / Speech by Sabine Mauderer (Bundesbank) / EUR/USD

17 February, 20:45 / US / Speech by Michael Barr (Vice Chair for Supervision, Fed) / USDX

17 February, 21:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Burkhard Balz (Bundesbank) / EUR/USD

17 February, 22:30 / US / Speech by Mary Daly (President, San Francisco Fed) / USDX

18 February, 05:00 / New Zealand / Speech by RBNZ Governor Anna Breman / NZD/USD

18 February, 12:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Piero Cipollone (ECB Executive Board) / EUR/USD

18 February, 20:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Isabel Schnabel (ECB Executive Board) / EUR/USD

18 February, 21:00 / US / Speech by Michelle Bowman (Fed Board) / USDX

18 February, 22:00 / US / FOMC minutes (28 Jan meeting) / policy rate – 3.75% / USDX

Remarks from senior central bank officials are also scheduled this week. Their comments commonly trigger FX volatility as they can signal future policy moves.

The economic calendar is available via the link. All indicators are presented year-on-year (y/y). Monthly figures are noted as (m/m). Trade balance, exports, and imports are shown in the country's currency. The asterisk * denotes (by increasing number) the importance of the release for assets available on the InstaForex platform. Please note that all publication times are given in Moscow Time (GMT+3). You can open a trading account here. Also see InstaForex market video news. To keep instruments at hand, we recommend downloading the MobileTrader app.