Trade analysis and guidance on trading the euro

The levels I marked were not tested in the first half of the day, so I had no trades.

Weak buyer activity in the euro is a natural consequence of Donald Trump's recent statements about a possible escalation of the conflict with Iran, as well as disappointing retail sales data from Italy. Geopolitical uncertainty related to a potential military conflict in the Persian Gulf traditionally has a negative impact on risk appetite, which includes the euro. Any news suggesting increased confrontation inevitably leads to capital outflows from the region and increased demand for safe-haven assets, such as the U.S. dollar. Additionally, weak retail sales in Italy are a warning signal for the entire eurozone.

In the second half of the day, data on weekly initial jobless claims and the U.S. trade balance will be released. Weekly unemployment claims serve as a sensitive indicator of labor market conditions. A significant decline in this measure would indicate a continued improvement in employment. Positive unemployment data typically increases expectations for tighter Federal Reserve monetary policy, supporting the U.S. dollar.

The trade balance, in turn, reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. A reduction in the trade deficit is seen positively by the market, as it indicates increased competitiveness of domestic producers and potentially stronger economic dynamics. A narrowing of the deficit due to tariffs introduced by Trump could indicate increased exports or reduced imports.

For intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today around 1.1535 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1567. At 1.1567, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. Expect euro growth today only if U.S. labor market data is weak. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above zero and only just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.1514 twice consecutively while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the pair's downward potential and trigger a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1535 and 1.1567 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell the euro after reaching 1.1514 (red line on the chart). The target is 1.1476, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point reversal). Pressure on the pair can return at any moment. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD is below zero and only just beginning to fall.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.1535 twice consecutively while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a reversal downward. A decline toward 1.1514 and 1.1476 can be expected.

Chart Overview

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested level for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested level for Take Profit or manual profit-taking, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, pay attention to overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before major fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based solely on current market conditions is a losing strategy for intraday traders.