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The United States created 130k nonfarm jobs in January 2026, above December's data (48k) and the 68k forecast. This is also the largest increase since December 2024. Data for 2025 was revised down to 181k from 584k previously, which means an average monthly gain of just 15k jobs versus the prior 49k. Against the backdrop of weak momentum at the end of 2025, January's figures look like a turning macro signal that sharply strengthens the dollar and weakens expectations of imminent Fed easing. They also confirm Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's statements on labor market stabilization. This became possible after the Fed suspended its rate-cut cycle last month.
Recall that the data release was delayed due to the recent partial government shutdown. The January employment report was published together with the Bureau of Labor Statistics' annual revisions to previously released data. Against the backdrop of weak momentum at the end of 2025, January's figures look like a turning macro signal that sharply strengthens the dollar and weakens expectations of imminent Fed easing. The US labor market report is indeed headline-grabbing, especially relative to the rest of the data, which consistently point to declining economic activity and shrinking vacancies. How reflective of reality are January's nonfarm payrolls? In 2025, the US labor market faced a sharp slowdown in hiring after several years of robust growth.
Fresh reports published last week indicate a further deterioration: layoffs are rising, while vacancies are falling. The US labor market also saw the largest revision to prior data in the history of the series. About 1 million jobs were effectively "wiped out." Annual data revisions are a normal, standard practice. However, the revised number itself clearly stands out from the pattern:
from 2011 through 2021 inclusive, the average annual revision was -19k jobs
in 2022 -506k
in 2023 again -187k
in 2024, the revision rose to -598k
in 2025 to -861k
in 2026, the figure plunged to -1,029k
So, according to the BLS, 130k jobs were created in January, while even the boldest forecasts did not exceed 70k. True, the December reports were again revised down, from 50k to 48k. These numbers suggest that the US economy is more resilient than expected and that the months-long stagnation in the labor market may finally have been overcome. Donald Trump welcomed the unexpectedly strong numbers with the following post: "We are again the strongest Country in the World, and should therefore be paying the LOWEST INTEREST RATE, by far". The question over the word "again" is rhetorical... It seems nobody has taken away the US economy's leading position.
Incidentally, 9 economic sectors showed a reduction in employment of 670k year?on?year.
The gain was driven by health care and social assistance — 758k over the year.
In the private sector (excluding government), jobs fell by 189k over two years.
USD
The US dollar index fell to 96.8 on Thursday after elevated volatility in the prior session. Despite strong employment data that could push back expectations for a Fed rate cut, the US currency failed to build on the upside momentum. To what extent did the greenback price in the stronger NFP gain — the best in over a year — and the unexpected drop in unemployment to 4.3%? In theory, the Fed's rate stance should be more hawkish in the coming months. The probability of the first cut has shifted from June to July. Yen strength is also weighing on the dollar. Increased demand for safe-haven currencies is being driven by renewed statements from Japanese officials about readiness to intervene, as well as optimism around Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's fiscal budget program, which envisages support for economic growth.
Washington boosts military presence near Iran
According to The Wall Street Journal, the US is considering redeploying a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East. A strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln is already in the region. The Pentagon is preparing the USS George H. W. Bush, which is completing final training off the coast of Virginia, for possible deployment. Sources say that a final decision has not yet been made — an order could be given within hours, or it could be delayed or canceled. If approved, the head of state could order the second carrier to deploy within two weeks. Donald Trump confirmed in an interview with Axios that he is considering sending a second carrier strike group to the Persian Gulf. "We have an armada that is heading there and another one might be going," he said. Trump added that continuing talks with Iran remain a priority for the coming week. On Wednesday, the US president reported a personal conversation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussing the situation in Gaza and the dynamics of dialogue with Tehran. Following those talks, Trump reiterated on Truth Social that he insists on continuing diplomatic communication with Iran despite ongoing tensions. "There was nothing definitive reached other than I insisted that negotiations with Iran continue to see whether or not a Deal can be consummated," he wrote on Truth Social.
Congress pushes back on Trump's tariffs
A stable bipartisan coalition has formed in the US Congress opposing the president's tariff policy. The first step was the House of Representatives rejecting an effort to delay consideration of tariff resolutions until August. The motion was defeated 217–214, despite the president's direct warnings about "electoral consequences" for Republicans who sided with the opposition. Six Republican representatives joined Democrats and supported Joint Resolution No. 72, aimed at terminating the state of emergency declared by Trump in February last year.
Recall that the state of emergency served as the legal basis for imposing tariffs on goods from Canada, justified by an alleged growing threat from drug trafficking. At the same time, fentanyl seizures at the northern border remain negligible compared with the southern border, a point previously made by security experts and members of Congress. Although the resolutions are nonbinding and can be vetoed by the president, the vote itself signals an erosion of intraparty loyalty. A similar resolution on the Canada tariffs has already passed the Senate and received support from some Republicans, including four instances of party-line crossings last year. The upcoming Senate vote is expected to mirror the House's dynamics.
As Republican Don Bacon noted, the tariffs have become a "net negative" for the economy, particularly for consumers, farmers, and manufacturers. He emphasized that it is time for Congress to take back tariff authority. Such statements are gaining traction amid low public support for the tariff policy. One of the most contentious aspects of the current showdown in Congress is the debate over the consequences of tariffs on Canada. Those measures have provoked significant outrage, given the questionable rationale of a "public health crisis" used to justify the restrictions.
At the same time, concerns are growing about a possible US exit from the USMCA, the pact between the US, Mexico, and Canada. A review of the agreement is scheduled for the summer. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer previously told a congressional committee that the current text of the agreement had significant shortcomings and that its renewal might not be in the interests of the United States. A series of votes with potential consequences for the midterm elections lies ahead. Democrats are prepared to press the trade policy offensive in advance of those contests. New waves of votes could become a tool to pressure Republicans, especially in vulnerable districts.
The likelihood is rising that the opposition center will consolidate more votes, from Democrats and moderate Republicans alike. Virginia Democrat Don Beyer said that she hopes that the three Republicans who have already stood up to Trump will be joined by others as they move to vote to repeal tariffs on Canadian goods and other key trading partners. If the movement to repeal tariffs gains momentum, it could set a precedent for re-evaluating broader presidential economic policy and increase pressure on the White House, both from a negotiating-position standpoint and across bipartisan relations.
February 12
12 February, 2:50 / Japan / ** / Producer price inflation in January / prev.: 2.7% / act.: 2.4% / forecast: 2.3% / USD/JPY – up
In December, producer inflation in Japan slowed to 2.4%, the lowest reading since May. Prices for a broad range of goods fell, especially in transport and food segments, although growth accelerated in electrical equipment and metals. On a monthly basis, the producer price index rose only 0.1%. If inflation comes in at 2.3% in January, this could support dollar strength against the yen.
12 February, 3:00 / Australia / *** / Consumer inflation expectations in February / prev.: 4.7% / act.: 4.6% / forecast: 4.4% / AUD/USD – down
Australian consumer inflation expectations remained at 4.6%, well above the RBA's target range. Respondents do not expect a rapid decline despite stabilization in the official CPI. The RBA continues to view inflation risks as skewed to the upside. If the February reading confirms at 4.4%, the Australian dollar may weaken amid persistent inflationary risks.
12 February, 3:01 / United Kingdom / ** / House price balance in January / prev.: -14% / act.: 14% / forecast: -11% / GBP/USD – down
In December, the RICS house price balance still pointed to a moderate decline despite improved expectations. The weakest dynamics remain in London and the South East, while prices continue to rise in Scotland and Northern Ireland. If the January balance prints -11%, the British pound could come under pressure amid expectations of a stagnating housing market.
12 February, 9:00 / Japan / * / Machine orders growth in January / prev.: 14.2% / act.: 10.6% / forecast: 9.5% / USD/JPY – up
Machine orders in Japan rose 10.6% in December, below forecasts, but still marking the highest level since March 2022. Export orders (+15.1%) led the increase, while domestic demand declined. On a monthly basis, there was a 15.5% rise. If machine orders grow by 9.5% in January, the dollar may strengthen against the yen, reflecting stable export demand.
12 February, 10:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Q4 GDP growth / prev.: 1.4% / act.: 1.3% / forecast: 1.2% / GBP/USD – down
The UK economy expanded 1.3% in Q3 2025, confirming a slowdown at the end of 2025. Weakness was seen in:
household consumption
investment
government spending
Net trade had a negative contribution due to faster import growth. The manufacturing sector remained muted, with the exception of construction. If Q4 growth confirms the 1.2% forecast, the pound may come under pressure.
12 February, 10:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Trade balance in December (deficit) / prev.: -24.17 bn / act.: -23.71 bn / forecast: -22.7 bn / GBP/USD – up
The UK external trade deficit narrowed on stronger exports, particularly to euro-area countries. Imports remained stable, as higher shipments from Europe offset declines from non-EU countries. If the December deficit narrows to -22.7 bn, the pound sterling could receive support from signs of recovering external demand.
12 February, 10:00 / United Kingdom / *** / Industrial production growth in December / prev.: 0.4% / act.: 2.3% / forecast: 1.5% / GBP/USD – down
In November, UK industrial production rose 2.3% year-on-year, notching the best result since mid-2021. Growth exceeded market expectations and followed a modest upward revision to the prior month. If December growth comes in at the 1.5% forecast, the pound may face temporary pressure.
New claims for unemployment benefits in the US rose to 231k, hitting an eight-week high. The rise was partly weather-related, but overall, the labor market remained resilient, as evidenced by low continuing claims among government workers. If next claims data print near 222k, the dollar could strengthen on expectations of stabilizing labor demand.
12 February, 16:30 / US / ** / Existing home sales in January / prev.: 4.14 mn / act.: 4.35 mn / forecast: 4.15 mn / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
In December, existing home sales in the US rose to an annualized 4.35 million amid falling mortgage rates and renewed demand. The series reached its highest level in nearly three years. Inventories fell sharply, supporting market activity. If January sales reach 4.15 million, the dollar may weaken on signs of a cooling in the housing sector.
The New Zealand manufacturing PMI rose to 56.1 pts in January, the highest level in recent months. The reading is well above the 50-point threshold, confirming expansion in the sector. The report signals stronger business confidence, but the lack of a forecast makes the NZD reaction unpredictable. The release may trigger volatility in the currency pair.
13 February, 4:30 / China / *** / New home price growth in January / prev.: -2.4% / act.: -2.7% / forecast: -2.6% / Brent – up, USD/CNY – down
New home prices in China fell 2.7% year-on-year in December, accelerating the pace of decline. This marks the 30th consecutive month of contraction and the steepest drop since July. The property market remains under pressure despite government support. If the decline slows to -2.6% in January, the yuan could strengthen on expectations of stabilization.
13 February, 10:00 / Germany / ** / Producer price growth in January / prev.: 1.5% / act.: 1.2% / forecast: 0.6% / EUR/USD – down
German producer prices rose 1.2% year?on?year in December, marking the 13th consecutive month of increases, though growth has moderated. Non-ferrous metals led the gains, food also accelerated, while agricultural commodities and dairy products softened. On a monthly basis, there was a 0.2% decline. If annual growth slows to 0.6% in January, the euro may come under pressure on expectations of easing inflationary momentum.
13 February, 13:00 / Eurozone / *** / Trade balance in December (surplus) / prev.: 17.9 bn / act.: 9.9 bn / forecast: 12.0 bn / EUR/USD – up
The bloc's external trade surplus narrowed to €9.9 bn in November, falling well short of expectations. Exports fell 3.4%, notably to the US and the UK. Imports declined by a smaller 1.3%, while purchases from China even increased. If the December surplus reaches €12.0 bn, the euro could strengthen on signs of recovering external demand.
The eurozone economy grew 1.4% in Q4, slowing but beating expectations. Ireland and Spain were the growth leaders among member states. Germany recorded growth of only 0.4%. The EU economy overall remains resilient, and the European Central Bank keeps its 2026 forecast at 1.2%. If Q4 GDP prints at the 1.3% forecast, the euro is likely to face downside pressure.
13 February, 13:30, 15:00 / Russia / *** / BoR interest rate decision, press conference / prev.: 16.5% / act.: 16.0% / forecast: 16.0% / USD/RUB – up
The Bank of Russia earlier cut the key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 16.0%, in line with market expectations. The decision reflects slowing inflation after the autumn peak and continued strong credit activity. Despite progress in disinflation, inflation expectations remain elevated, and policy stays tight. If the regulator keeps its policy rate unchanged at 16%, the ruble could strengthen, especially given signals from the bank about keeping the current rate going forward.
13 February, 16:30 / US / *** / Headline consumer inflation in January / prev.: 2.7% / act.: 2.7% / forecast: 2.5% / USDX (6?currency USD index) – down
Annual inflation in the US remained at 2.7%, while the core index was at its lowest since 2021 (2.6%). Energy pressure eased, with gasoline cheaper, offsetting increases in housing and food prices. Monthly CPI rose 0.3%, while core CPI added 0.2%. If January inflation slows to 2.5%, the dollar could weaken on expectations of monetary policy easing.
13 February, 19:00 / Russia / ** / Headline consumer inflation in December / prev.: 6.6% / act.: 5.6% / forecast: 6.4% / USD/RUB – down
Annual inflation in Russia slowed to 5.6% in December, down a full percentage point. The reading missed the forecast and provides an additional positive signal for the regulator against the backdrop of a previously maintained high key interest rate. If inflation accelerates to 6.4% or higher, the ruble could gain on expectations of a more prolonged tight monetary policy.
12 February, 03:00 / US / Speech by Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan / USDX
12 February, 07:45 / Australia / Speech by Sarah Hunter, Assistant Governor (Economic) of the Reserve Bank of Australia / AUD/USD
12 February, 12:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Piero Cipollone, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank / EUR/USD
12 February, 12:00 / The International Energy Agency's oil market report / Brent
12 February, 16:45, 21:45 / Canada / Speech by Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada / USD/CAD
12 February, 19:00 / Eurozone / Speech by Pedro Machado, the ECB's Supervisory Board member / EUR/USD
12 February, 21:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Philip Lane, the ECB's Supervisory Board member / EUR/USD
12 February, 22:30 / Eurozone / Speech by Joachim Nagel, the ECB's Governing Council member / EUR/USD
13 February, 03:00 / US / Speech by Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas / USDX
13 February, 03:05 / US / Speech by Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran / USDX
13 February, 11:30 / Japan / Speech by Bank of Japan Board member Naoki Tamura / USD/JPY
13 February, 13:00, 15:00 / Eurozone / Speech by European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos / EUR/USD
13 February, 15:00 / UK / Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill / GBP/USD
15 February, 12:30 / Eurozone / Speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde / EUR/USD
Also scheduled over these days are remarks from senior central bank officials. Their comments typically generate volatility in FX markets as they can signal future policy intentions on interest rates.
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