Currency and stock markets are responding with sharp declines as the Middle East has once again become the epicenter of global tension. On the 965th day of the "Iron Sword War," the United States and Iran are balancing on the brink between a historic agreement and the resumption of full-scale hostilities.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on May 27 that Washington would give negotiations a "chance for success" — and the markets immediately reacted: oil prices plummeted by over 5%. However, parallelly, Trump outlined a hard red line: "The Strait of Hormuz will be open to all. These are international waters — no one will control them." This is a direct response to Tehran's key demand for the right to charge transit fees and maintain operational control over this strategic waterway.

The scale of the crisis is telling: today, only about 10% of pre-war shipping is passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil tankers have practically ceased their operations. According to the latest estimates, total production losses will exceed 1 billion barrels by the end of May. This is why every leak from the negotiations — whether an optimistic signal or a hint of failure — immediately reverberates through fluctuations in commodity markets.

The basic parameters of the discussed deal remain unchanged: a 60-day ceasefire, the unfreezing of $12 billion in Iranian assets, the lifting of the maritime blockade, and the reopening of the strait within 30 days. Tehran's nuclear program is excluded from these discussions — its fate will be determined in separate negotiations.

While negotiators haggle, the war in the region continues unabated. On May 28, Israeli aviation carried out massive strikes on 47 populated areas in Lebanon — in the south of the country and the Bekaa Valley, including Nabatiyeh, Tyre, and the surroundings of the largest reservoir, Karun. Iran continues to insist on an end to Israeli attacks against Hezbollah as a prerequisite for any agreement with Washington. This knot has yet to be untied.

Adding to this is another important point: over the past 24 hours, the Taiwanese Ministry of Defense has reported nine aircraft and six ships of the People's Liberation Army of China. Notably, all nine aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait — an unofficial dividing line, the crossing of which is considered a deliberate provocation. While this number is moderate for 2026, as up to 26 aircraft per day were recorded as recently as March, the systemic crossing of the median line by the entire air group is a concerning signal.

Against this backdrop, the precious metals market has entered a phase of cautious stabilization. After correcting to $4,473, a low not seen since the end of March, gold has recovered to levels around $4,531. Divergent forces are keeping quotes in balance: the expected decline in geopolitical anxiety supported gold earlier in the week, but high U.S. inflation at 3.8%, uncertainty around the Federal Reserve, and the ongoing war are again exerting pressure.

Major investment banks maintain bullish forecasts: JP Morgan is targeting $5,000 by the fourth quarter of 2026, Goldman Sachs predicts $5,400, and UBS anticipates $5,900 in the medium term.